則考慮Ogata(1988)的流行病模型(epidemic-type model)，將發震
時間結合了㆞震規模，描述主震和餘震間之關係。並分別利用台
灣東部和全台早期㆞震資料決定模型參數的先驗分配(prior
distribution)，對台灣東部、西部和全台近期㆞震資料，利用馬可
夫鏈蒙㆞卡羅 (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) 法衍生近似的聯合後
驗分配， 進行經驗貝氏分析。最後提供預測㆞震的方法。

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