本文使用10個亞洲大型經濟體的跨國追蹤資料調查影響人均國內生產總值成長的關鍵因素，研究期間為1972-2010年，研究結果發現在其他條件不變的假定下，金融危機對於經濟成長率只有短期的負面影響，與「資產負債表衰退理論」之預期不符。另外有關於所得水準持續升高導致都市化對經濟成長的效用由正轉負之Williamson的假說，本文實證其效果不顯著。此外信用數量理論預測國內信用對於名目國內生產毛額的比率持續偏高(低)時，金融泡沫(通貨緊縮)將會發生，不利於經濟成長，則和我們的研究結果一致。本研究另以新聞自由度作為民粹主義的代理變量，發現在亞洲大型國家民粹主義的發展對經濟成長造成危害之效果為真。

This paper uses panel data from 28 large economies in the world to investigate the determinants of the growth rate of real per capita GDP during 1969-2010. It is found that contrary to the prediction of the “balance sheet recession theory”, financial crisis has negative effects on growth rates only in the short run, other things being equal. The prediction of the “quantity theory of credit” that when the ratio between the credit level and nominal GDP is kept too high (low) for a sustained period of time, a situation of financial bubble creation (credit crunch) will develop, and would be detrimental to growth in either way is consistent with our findings.

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