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研究生: 謝嘉琪
Chia-chi Hsieh
論文名稱: 結合營收之價格動能策略:以台灣股票市場為例
A Study in the combination of Revenue and Price Momentum Strategy: Evidence from Taiwan
指導教授: 陳鴻毅
口試委員:
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融學系在職專班
Executive Master of Finance
論文出版年: 2013
畢業學年度: 101
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 99
中文關鍵詞: 動能策略價格動能策略
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  • 本研究以台灣證券交易所的上市公司為研究對象,分別透過不同頻率、樣本週期、營收成長率和多空市場等條件,檢視價格動能策略的獲利情況。當以月資料進行價格動能策略時,本研究無論在整體樣本期間或多空頭市場下,其實證結果均與過去文獻結果相符,為無顯著報酬現象。若改以週資料進行價格動能策略,其實證結果發現價格動能策略具顯著獲利能力。實證結果亦發現,當以週資料分別結合不同樣本週期、多空市場或結合營收成長率進行實證研究,在結合營收成長率時,能有較高獲利能力。此外,本研究更進一步分析價格動能策略的換股比例時,發現價格動能策略的形成期越短,其換股比例越高。代表若考量交易成本,較高的換股比例,可能影響價格動能策略的獲利能力。整體而言,本研究發現在台灣股票市場,仍可利用價格動能策略賺取超額報酬,該發現與效率市場假說相悖。


    This study uses companies listed in Taiwan Stock Exchange to investigate the profitability of various momentum strategies using different frequencies, sample periods, performance measures, and market states. Empirical results show that, consistent to previous studies, monthly momentum strategies cannot generate significant profits, except when the strategy is executed over the period not belong to bull or bear market. In contrast, weekly momentum strategies is profitable in Taiwanese stock market. Such findings are robust in different sample periods and market states. A combined weekly momentum strategy using prior price return and revenue growth can offer higher return. In addition, a higher turnover rate of momentum strategy is observed when the formation period is shorter and may deteriorate the momentum profits. Finally, empirical findings of profitable weekly momentum strategies may add to the large literature on challenging efficient market hypothesis.

    一、緒論 ... 1 1-1研究背景與動機 ... 1 1-2研究目的... 4 1-3研究流程與架構... 5 二、文獻探討... 7 2-1價格動能策略相關文獻... 7 2-2反向策略相關文獻... 9 2-3元月效應相關文獻 ... 11 2-4區分多空頭市場之相關文獻 ... 13 三、研究方法與設計 .... 14 3-1資料來源與處理... 14 3-2研究方法 ... 20 3-3研究步驟 ... 23 四、實證結果與分析 ... 28 4-1基本統計量 ... 28 4-2月報酬價格動能策略... 29 4-3週報酬價格動能策略... 33 4-4換股比例分析 ... 39 五、結論與建議 ... 41 5-1研究結論 ... 41 5-2研究建議 ... 43 參考文獻 ... 44

    一、 英文參考文獻
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    [11] Hong, Harrison, and Jeremy C. Stein, 1999, “A Unifed Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading and Overreaction in Asset Markets,” Journal of Finance, 54, 2143-2184.
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    [21] Richards, A. J., 1995, “Winner-Loser Reversals in National Stock Market Indices: Can They Be Explained?” Journal of Finance, 52, 2129-2144.
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    二、中文參考文獻
    [1] 彭建偉,「各種動能策略在台灣股市的獲利性分析」,國立暨南國際大學財務金融學系研究所,碩士論文,民國100年
    [2] 楊子德,「52週高價動能策略、價格動能策略、產業動能策略於台灣股票市場的獲利性比較與分析」,國立政治大學財務管理研究所,碩士論文,民國96年
    [3] 張定喬,「動能策略與反向策略在台灣指數期貨市場之獲利能力」,國立交通大學財務金融研究所,碩士論文,民國100年
    [4] 黃志弘,「台灣各類股股價變動之型態及結合動能策略與反向策略之交易測試」,國立臺北大學經濟學系研究所,碩士論文,民國99年
    [5] 邱文志,「臺灣股票市場動能策略剖析-以次貸風暴期間為例」,國立中正大學財務金融研究所,碩士論文,民國99年
    [6] 陳誌原,「動能策略與景氣循環」,國立中正大學財務金融研究所,碩士論文,民國97年
    [7] 邱俞華,「中長期動能策略之研究:以台灣股市為例」,國立政治大學財務管理研究所,碩士論文,民國95年

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