| 研究生: |
黃成志 Cheng-Chih Huang |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
反向操作成因與績效 Identifying the factors relating to Contrarian Profit from Tokyo Stock Exchange |
| 指導教授: |
周賓凰
Pin-Huang Chou |
| 口試委員: | |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 財務金融學系 Department of Finance |
| 畢業學年度: | 89 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 50 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 反向操作 、交易量 、公司規模 、淨值市值比 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | contrarian, volume, size, book to market ratio |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:12 下載:0 |
| 分享至: |
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。另外也有學者指出過去的股票交易量,可以提供反向操作一個有用的資
訊,可以加強反向操作的獲利性。本論文考量形成期市場與個別股票各種
狀態因子與反向操作獲利的關係,並檢視在考量各個變數解釋反向操作獲
利的解釋能力,當中考量形成期期間市場報酬減去無風險利率,市場上各
股票的累積報酬最大差異(全距)與變異數、個股股票的交易量、公司規
模、淨值市值比等因子。
經過探討不同的投資組合分組,得到以下結論:
(1)在市場報酬表現佳時,反向操作獲利性會減弱,反之會增強。
(2)同時考量個股交易量與報酬率作為分組依據,會發現低交易的輸家與高
交易的贏家較容易反轉,所以買進交易量低的輸家與賣空交易量低的贏家對於
反向操作,獲利性較為明顯,獲利也較高,而且獲利性會持續較長。
(3)同時考量個股公司規模大小與報酬,作為分組的依據,發現買進小規模的輸
家可以確保反向操作的獲利性,而賣空小規模的贏家將會降低反向操作的獲利
性,小規模的輸家與小規模的贏家對反向操作獲利的影響具持續性。
(4)同時考量個股公司淨值市值比與報酬率作為分組的依據,發現高淨值市值比的
反向操作具獲利性,而且其效果顯著。
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