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研究生: 黃成志
Cheng-Chih Huang
論文名稱: 反向操作成因與績效
Identifying the factors relating to Contrarian Profit from Tokyo Stock Exchange
指導教授: 周賓凰
Pin-Huang Chou
口試委員:
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融學系
Department of Finance
畢業學年度: 89
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 50
中文關鍵詞: 反向操作交易量公司規模淨值市值比
外文關鍵詞: contrarian, volume, size, book to market ratio
相關次數: 點閱:12下載:0
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  • 。另外也有學者指出過去的股票交易量,可以提供反向操作一個有用的資
    訊,可以加強反向操作的獲利性。本論文考量形成期市場與個別股票各種
    狀態因子與反向操作獲利的關係,並檢視在考量各個變數解釋反向操作獲
    利的解釋能力,當中考量形成期期間市場報酬減去無風險利率,市場上各
    股票的累積報酬最大差異(全距)與變異數、個股股票的交易量、公司規
    模、淨值市值比等因子。
    經過探討不同的投資組合分組,得到以下結論:
    (1)在市場報酬表現佳時,反向操作獲利性會減弱,反之會增強。
    (2)同時考量個股交易量與報酬率作為分組依據,會發現低交易的輸家與高
    交易的贏家較容易反轉,所以買進交易量低的輸家與賣空交易量低的贏家對於
    反向操作,獲利性較為明顯,獲利也較高,而且獲利性會持續較長。
    (3)同時考量個股公司規模大小與報酬,作為分組的依據,發現買進小規模的輸
    家可以確保反向操作的獲利性,而賣空小規模的贏家將會降低反向操作的獲利
    性,小規模的輸家與小規模的贏家對反向操作獲利的影響具持續性。
    (4)同時考量個股公司淨值市值比與報酬率作為分組的依據,發現高淨值市值比的
    反向操作具獲利性,而且其效果顯著。


    1 緒論.....................................1 2 文獻探討.................................3 2.1 反向操作相關論文探討...................3 2.2 考量交易量之反向操作相關論文探討..........................................5 3 研究設計.................................8 3.1 資料說明...............................8 3.2 投資組合之形成.........................8 3.3 反向操作獲利與解釋因子關係.............11 3.4 解釋因子加入反向操作策略...............13 4 實證結果.................................16 4.1 不同形成期與持有期下反向操作獲利情形..........................................16 4.2 解釋變數解釋能力.......................18 4.3 加入解釋因子考量之反向操作獲利..........................................20 5 結論.....................................28

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