題之一。本文主要探討主震與最大餘震發生時間差T1 之分布，
並且研究其與相關資料之關係，其中相關資料如主震規模
（M0）、主震發生之震源深度（depth）及修正Omori 模式中的參
數p 值。本文引用日本、紐西蘭、台灣及希臘等四個地區之歷史
餘震序列資料，分析各地區T1 之機率分布，並探討此三者變數
（M0、p 值，與depth）對於T1 的影響，藉以了解各地區最大餘
震發生時間與其主震特性及餘震衰退率的關係。最後評估並討論
不同地區之最大餘震發生時間之風險。

[1] Anderson, H. and Webb, T. (1994), “New Zealand Seismicity:
Patterns Revealed by the Upgraded National Seismograph
Network,” New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 37,
477-493.
[2] Carter, J. A. and Berg, E. (1981), “Relative Stress Variation as
Determined by b-Values From Earthquakes in Circum-Pacific
Subduction Zones,” Tectonophysics, 76, 257-271.
[3] Drakatos, G. (2000), “Relative Seismic Quiescence Before Large
Aftershocks,” Pure and Applied Geophysics, 157, 1407-1421.
[4] Drakatos, G., and Latoussakis, J. (1996), “Some Features of
Aftershock Patterns in Greece,” Geophysical Journal International,
126, 123-134.
[5] Eberhart-Phillips, D. (1998), “Aftershock Sequence Parameters in
New Zealand,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 88,
4, 1095-1097.
[6] Guo, Z., and Ogata, Y. (1997), “Statistical Relations Between the
Parameters of Aftershocks in Time, Space, and Magnitude,” Journal
of Geophysical Research, 102, B2, 2857-2873.
[7] Kagan, Y. and Knopoff, L. (1978), “Statistical Study of the
Occurrence of Shallow Earthquakes,” Geophysical Journal of the
Royal Astronomical Society, 55, 67-86.
[8] Kisslinger, C. (1995), “Aftershocks and Fault-Zone Properties,”
Advances in Geophysics, 38, 1-36.
[9] Kisslinger, C., and Jones, L. M. (1991), “Properties of Aftershock
Sequences in Southern California,” Journal of Geophysical
Research, 96, B7, 11,947-11,958.
最大餘震發生時間之統計分析 參考文獻
50
[10] Latoussakis, J., and Drakatos, G. (1994), “A Quantitative Study of
Some Aftershock Sequences in Greece,” Pure and Applied
Geophysics, 143, 4, 603-616.
[11] Latoussakis, J., Stavrakakis, G., Drakopoulos, J., Papanastassiou, D.,
and Drakatos, G. (1991), “Temporal Characteristics of Some
Earthquake Sequences in Greece, ” Tectonophysics, 193, 299-310.
[12] Ogata, Y. (1983), “Estimation of the Parameters in the Modified
Omori Formula for Aftershock Frequencies by the Maximum
Likelihood Procedure,” Journal of Physics of the earth, 31, 115-124.
[13] Ogata, Y. (1988), “Statistical Models for Earthquake Occurrences
and Residual Analysis for Point Processes,” Journal of the American
Statistical Association, 83, 401, 9-27.
[14] Ogata, Y. (1999), “Seismicity Analysis Through Point-Process
Modeling: A Review,” Pure and Applied Geophysics, 155, 471-507.
[15] Ogata, Y., and Shimazaki, K. (1984), “Transition From Aftershock to
Normal Activity: The 1965 Rat Islands Earthquake Aftershock
Sequence,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 74, 5,
1757-1765.
[16] Olsson, R. (1999), “An Estimation of the Maximum b-Value in the
Gutenberg-Richter Relation,” Geodynamics, 27, 547-552.
[17] Page, R. (1968), “Aftershocks and Microaftershocks of the Great
Alaska Earthquake of 1964,” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of
America, 58, 3, 1131-1168.
[18] Rabinowitz, N., and Steinberg, D. M. (1998), “Aftershock Decay of
Three Recent Strong Earthquakes in the Levant,” Bulletin of the
Seismological Society of America, 88, 6, 1580-1587.
[19] Reasenberg, P. A., and Jones, L. M. (1989), “Earthquake Hazard
After a Mainshock in California,” Science, 243, 1173-1176.
最大餘震發生時間之統計分析 參考文獻
51
[20] Reasenberg, P. A., and Jones, L. M. (1990), “California Aftershock
Hazard Forecasts,” Science, 247, 345-346.
[21] Reasenberg, P. A., and Jones, L. M. (1994), “Earthquake Aftershocks:
Update,” Science, 265, 1251-1252.
[22] Reasenberg, P. A., and Matthews, M. V. (1990), “California
Aftershock Model Uncertainties,” Science, 247, 343-345.
[23] Tsapanos, T. M. (1992), “Considerations on the Global Seismic
Sequences: the Second and the Third Largest Aftershocks,”
Geophysical Journal International, 111, 630-636.
[24] Tsapanos, T. M., Karakaisis, G. F., Hatzidimitriou, P. M., and
Scordilis, E. M. (1988), “On the Probability of the Time of
Occurrence of the Largest Aftershock and of the Largest Foreshock
in a Seismic Sequence,” Tectonophysics, 149, 117-180.
[25] Utsu, T. (1961), “A Statistical Study on the Occurrence of
Aftershocks,” The Geophysical Magazine, 30, 4, 521-605.
[26] Utsu, T. (1969), “Aftershocks and Earthquake Statistics (É) —Some
Parameters Which Characterize an Aftershock Sequence and Their
Interrelation,” Journal of the Faculty of Science, Hokkaido
University, Ser. VÉÉ, 3, 3, 129-195.
[27] Utsu, T. (1970), “Aftershocks and Earthquake Statistics(ÉÉ)—Further
Investigation of Aftershocks and Other Earthquake Sequences Based
on a New Classification of Earthquake Sequences,” Journal of the
Faculty of Science, Hokkaido University, Ser. VÉÉ (Geophysics), 3, 4,
197-266.
[28] Vere-Jones, D. (1995), “Forecasting Earthquakes and Earthquake
Risk,” International Journal of Forecasting, 11, 503-538.
[29] Wiemer, S., and Katsumata, K. (1999), “Spatial Variability of
Seismicity Parameters in Aftershock Zones,” Journal of Geophysical
Research, 104, B6, 13,135-13,151.
最大餘震發生時間之統計分析 參考文獻
52
[30] 何佳珣（2000）：花蓮地區地震資料之長時期相關性及時間—空
間模型之可行性，國立中央大學統計研究所碩士論文。
[31] 林志勳（1999）：花蓮地區地震資料之經驗貝氏分析，國立中央
大學統計研究所碩士論文。
[32] 陳韋辰（2000）：花蓮地區地震資料改變點之貝氏模型選擇，國
立中央大學統計研究所碩士論文。
[33] 盧裕鵬（2000）：集集餘震之統計研究，國立中央大學統計研究
所碩士論文。