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研究生： 王柏舜
Po-Shun Wang
論文名稱： 初始工作對未來職涯之影響：以美國職棒大聯盟實證研究
指導教授： 楊志海
Chih-Hai Yang
口試委員:
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 管理學院 - 經濟學系
Department of Economics
論文出版年： 2019
畢業學年度： 107
語文別： 中文
論文頁數： 47
中文關鍵詞： 初始工作 、初始球隊 、美國職棒大聯盟 、選秀順位 、教育程度
外文關鍵詞： initial work, Initial team, Major League Baseball, Draft pick, education level
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    • 在全球的職業運動中，棒球是最受歡迎的運動項目之一，而美國職業棒球大聯盟發展至今已有150年的歷史，目前擁有了30支棒球隊伍。而本研究採用美國大聯盟2012年的467位投手及443位野手，總共910位選秀球員與其未來比賽成績作為研究對象，運用Panel Probit的隨機效果模型做分析，研究新秀球員在選秀後簽約的初始球隊對於他未來是否能登板大聯盟的影響，研究結果發現選秀的順位最直接影響了球員登板大聯盟的機率，而且進入小聯盟後的個人戰績也會影響了是否能夠進入大聯盟，另外也發現較高的教育程度對於球員進入大聯盟有不利的影響。

    Baseball is one of the most popular sports in the global professional sports, and the Major League Baseball has been developed for 150 years and currently has 30 baseball teams. The study used 467 pitchers and 443 field players in the 2012 Major League Baseball, a total of 910 draft players and their future game results as the research object, using Panel Probit random effects model to analyze the initials of the rookie players signed after the draft. The team's influence on whether he can board the Major League Baseball in the future, the research found that the draft pick directly affects the chances of the players in the Major League Baseball, and the personal record after entering the small league will also affect whether they can enter the Major League Baseball, in addition Finding a higher level of education has a negative impact on players entering the Major League Baseball.

    目錄 中文摘要……………………………………………………………… i 英文摘要……………………………………………………………… ii 誌謝…………………………………………………………………… iii 目錄…………………………………………………………………… iv 圖目錄………………………………………………………………… v 表目錄………………………………………………………………… vi 第一章 緒論 ………………………………………………………… 1 第一節 研究背景 ……………………………………………………… 1 第二節 研究動機與目的 ……………………………………………… 2 第三節 研究方法 ……………………………………………………… 3 第四節 章節架構 ……………………………………………………… 3 第二章 美國職棒選秀制度的變遷 …………………………… 5 第三章 文獻回顧 ………………………………………………… 8 第四章 實證模型與資料來源 ………………………………… 12 第一節 實證模型 …………………………………………………… 12 第二節 資料來源與敘述統計 ……………………………………… 16 第五章 實證估計結果與分析 ………………………………… 23 第一節 野手的估計結果 …………………………………………… 23 第二節 投手的估計結果 …………………………………………… 28 第六章 結論 ……………………………………………………… 34 參考文獻 …………………………………………………………… 35

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