| 研究生: |
林柏辰 Bo-chen Lin |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
地震數目改變率的計算及應用 A study of the changing rate of earthquake number |
| 指導教授: |
李顯智
Hsien-chi Li |
| 口試委員: | |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
工學院 - 土木工程學系 Department of Civil Engineering |
| 畢業學年度: | 95 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 84 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 地震預測 、相對強渡 、圖案資訊 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | earthquake forecast, relative intensity, pattern informatics |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:4 下載:0 |
| 分享至: |
| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
本論文提出ㄧ種計算地震活動變化的方法Acceleration Index (AI)應用於台灣地區,分析深度區間以及時間參數t0,t1,t2,∆tfor,∆tAfter的改變對於尋常值(Usual Mean)及近期平均值(Recent Mean)之影響,且透過AI map預測點之分布探討平均值之穩定性,最後並與PI方法作一對比。根據研究結果顯示, 時間的調整有助於了解台灣地區地震發生之平均值, ∆tfor的選取決定了與大地震有關紀錄之剔除。
In the thesis, we propose a method called the acceleration index (AI) calculate the variations of earthquake activities in Taiwan. We analyzed
the influence of different factors(t0,t1,t2,∆tfor,∆tAfter) to the usual mean and recent mean, and used the distribution of AI map pixels to discuss the stabilize of mean value. Finally, the AI method is compared with the PI method.
According to the results of the survey, the adjustment of the time t0 is helpful to realize the average value of occurrence of earthquakes in Taiwan. The relevant records of strong earthquakes can be eliminated based on the selection of the value of ∆tfor.
Bufe, C. G. , and Varnes , D. J . , 1993.:Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the greater San Francisco Bay Region. J. Geophys. Res., 98: 9871~9883.
Bufe, C. G. , Nishenko , S. P. , and Varnes , D. J . , 1994. Seismicity trends and potential for large earthquake in the Alaska-Aleutian region. Pure Appl . Geophys. ,142 : 83~99.
Chen, C. C., 2006: From Tornadoes to Earthquakes: Forecast Verification for Binary Events Applied to the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, Earthquake. Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences TAO, Vol. 17, No. 3, 503-516.
Chen, C. C., J. B. Rundle, J. R. Holliday, K. Z. Nanjo, D. L.Turcotte, S. C. Li, and K. F.Tiampo, 2005: The 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake as a typical example of seismic activation and quiescence. Geophys. Res. Letts., 32, L22315, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023991.
Gerstenberger, M. C., S. Wiemer, L. M. Jones, and P. A. Reasenberg, 2005: Real-time forecasts of tomorrow’s earthquakes in California. Nature, 435, 328-331.
Gross , S. , and Rundle, J., 1998. A systematic test of time-to-failure analysis. Geophys. J. Int., 133: 57~64.
James R. Holliday, John B. Rundle, Donald L. Turcotte, William Klein, Kristy F. Tiampo, and Andrea Donnellan 2006: Space-Time Clustering and Correlations of Major Earthquakes. Physical Review Letters, PRL97, 238501.
Jaume, S. C., and L. R. Sykes, 1999: Evolving towards a critical point: A review of accelerating seismic moment/energy release prior to large and great earthquakes. Pure Appl. Geophys., 155, 279-306.
J.R. Holliday, K.Z. Nanjo, K.F. Tiampo, J.B. Rundle, and D.L. Turcotte 2005: Earthquake forecasting and its verification. Nolinear Processes in Geophysics., 12, 965-977.
J.R. Holliday, J.B. Rundle, K.F. Tiampo, and D.L. Turcotte 2006: Using
earthquake intensities to forecast earthquake occurrence times. Nolinear Processes in Geophysics., 13, 585-593, 2006.
Keilis-Borok, V., 2002: Earthquake prediction State-of-the-art and emerging possibilities.Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 30, 1-33.
Knopoff , L. , Levshina , T. , Keilis2Borok , V. I. , et al . , 1996. Increased
long-range intermediate-magnitude earthquake activity prior to strong earthquakes in California. J. Geophys. Res., 101: 5779~5796.
Rundle, J. B., W. Klein, K. F. Tiampo, and S. J. Gross, 2000a: Linear pattern dynamics in nonlinear threshold systems. Phys. Rev. E, 61, 2418-2431.
Rundle, J. B., K. F. Tiampo, W. Klein, and J. S. S. Martins, 2002: Self-organization in leaky threshold systems: The influence of near-mean field dynamics and its implications for earthquakes, neurobiology, and forecasting. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 99, 2514-2521.
Rundle, J. B., D. L. Turcotte, R. Shcherbakov, W. Klein, and C. Sammis, 2003: Statistical physics approach to understanding the multiscale dynamics of earthquake fault systems. Rev. Geophys., 41, 1019, doi:10.1029/2003RG000135.
Tiampo, K. F., J. B. Rundle, S. McGinnis, S. J. Gross, and W. Klein, 2002a: Mean-field threshold systems and phase dynamics: An application to earthquake fault systems. Europhys. Lett., 60, 481-487.
Tiampo, K. F., J. B. Rundle, S. McGinnis, and W. Klein, 2002b: Pattern dynamics and forecast methods in seismically active regions. Pure Appl. Geophys., 159, 2429-2467.
Sornette , D. , and Sammis , C. G. , 1995. Critical exponents from renomalization group theory of earthquakes : implications for earthquake prediction. J. Phys. I., 5 : 607~619.
Varnes , D. J . , 1989. Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating precursory seismic activity. Pure Appl . Geophys., 130: 661~686.
Wyss, M., 1997: Nomination of precursory seismic quiescence as a significant precursor. Pure Appl. Geophys., 149, 79-114.
Wyss, M., and A. H. Martirosyan, 1998: Seismic quiescence before the M 7, 1988, Spitak earthquake, Armenia. Geophys. J. Int., 134, 329-340.
Wyss, M., and S. Wiemer, 2000: Change in the probability for earthquakes in southern California due to the Landers magnitude 7.3 Earthquake. Science, 290, 1334-1338.