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研究生: 黃啟軒
Chi-Hsuan Huang
論文名稱: 台灣強震之時間與規模預測模型
指導教授: 陳玉英
Yu-Ying Chen
口試委員:
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 理學院 - 統計研究所
Graduate Institute of Statistics
畢業學年度: 91
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 58
中文關鍵詞: 台灣地震
相關次數: 點閱:8下載:0
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  • 摘 要
    本文分別根據台灣地區自西元1900年1月1日至西元1999年6月30日所有規模在5.0以上的原始地震資料、視窗散群資料及人工散群資料,研究台灣長期的強震發生模式,藉以了解強震發生的間隔時間及規模之間的關係。此外,為了解地震時間-規模預測模式與地質或地區的相關性,進一步採用空間格點(spatial-grid)的方法配適空間預測模式,並藉此模式評估強震空間風險。


    目 錄 第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………....1 1.1 研究動機………………………………………………..………..1 1.2 研究方法………………………………………………..………..3 第二章 文獻回顧……………………………………………………....6 2.1 地震散群……………………………………………..………..…6 2.2 時間-規模預測模型…………………………………..……..…..8 第三章 台灣地震散群…..……………………………………………11 3.1 視窗散群法………………………………..…………………....11 3.2 人工散群法………………………………………………..…....12 第四章 預測模式研究…..……………………………………………14 4.1 分區模型…………………………..…………………………....14 4.2 整體模式……………..………………………………………....16 第五章 空間預測模式…..……………………………………………20 5.1 空間格點法……………………………………………………..20 5.2 模型參數空間分布……………………………..……………....20 5.3 整體模式……………………..………………………………....24 5.4 地震風險之評估…………………………………………….….26 第六章 結論與展望…..………………………………………………28 參考文獻…..……………………………………………………………29 附錄 圖表.….…………………………………………………………..31

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