| 研究生: |
葉怡君 Yi-Chun Yeh |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
以Copulas測度市場風險之探討 |
| 指導教授: |
徐之強
Chih-Chiang Hsu |
| 口試委員: | |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 產業經濟研究所 Graduate Institute of Industrial Economics |
| 畢業學年度: | 93 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 35 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 市場風險 、風險值 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | VaR, copulas |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:10 下載:0 |
| 分享至: |
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本篇論文以 copulas 配合不同的邊際分配估計投資組合風險值,投資組合以三個股價指數為標的分別組成二商品和三商品的投資組合,並和時間序列模型的估計結果相互比較,結果發現在二商品組合中 copulas 對部分投資組合和部分信賴水準的風險值有比較好的估計能力,但大部分的情形下差異並不顯著,
被拒絕的模型都太過保守高估未來的市場風險,在三商品組合模型幾乎都無法掌握未來風險,而且反而是常態分配相對有比較好的估計能力。假設 t 分配為邊際分配稍微減少高估風險的情形,但並不影響模型被接受與否。
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