本研究從地震目錄中規模6 級以上之地震逐步往下篩選，直到地震弧交叉出現，並
對其分析及統計，試圖尋找往後發生之大地震與其關聯。
利用應力集中概念、及岩石中張力裂縫分布模式，發展出地震圓弧交叉分析方法，
試圖尋找由地震事件所組成的地震圓弧交叉及地震圓弧雙交叉，我們稱之為主地震圓弧
交叉及主雙凸地震圓弧交叉，再針對地震圓弧交會的應力集中相互作用範圍作統計與分
析
所選取的資料乃地震目錄中2003 年下半年至2013 年之地震事件，共發現了21 個
主交叉與21 個雙主地震圓弧交叉，且每一個案例在未來三年間，距離交叉點70 公里內，
皆有至少一個規模6 或5.7 級以上之強烈地震發生，讓我們更加確定主地震圓弧交叉與
強烈地震之間的關聯性，爾後求出地震弧由每一個事件點所累積的能量總和，並求出地
震弧上每個地震點的破裂長度以及均勻度，探討上述資訊對於未來之大震之影響。

This study screened the earthquakes of magnitude 6 or higher from the earthquake
catalog until the intersection of the earthquake arcs, and then we analyzed them, trying to find
the information that major earthquakes may happen in the future.
Using the concept of stress concentration and the distribution of tension cracks in rock,
the earthquake arc intersection analysis method is developed to try to find the earthquake arc
intersection and the earthquake arc double intersection composed of earthquake events. We
call ‘’The Strongest Intersection Of Circular Arcs Of Earthquakes’’ . And ‘’The Strongest
Double-Convex Intersection Of Circular Arcs Of Earthquakes’’, and then the statistics and
analysis of the stress concentration interaction range of the earthquake arc intersection
The selected data is the earthquake incident from 2003 to 2013 in the earthquake
catalogue. A total of 42 main intersections were found, and each case has at least one grade of
6 or 5.7 in the next three years, within 70 km from the intersection.This information let us
more determine the correlation between the main seismic arc intersection and the strong
earthquake. Then, the sum of the energy accumulated by the earthquake arc from each event
point is obtained, and the length and uniformity of each earthquake point on the earthquake
arc are obtained, and discussing the influence of the above information on the large
earthquake in the future .
Keywords:

參考文獻
[ 1 ] H.C. Lei, “Circles, Circular Arcs and Lines of Earthquakes Around Taiwan”,
The 40th National Conference on Theoretical and Applied Mechanics,
Hsinchu, Taiwan, ROC, November 25-26, 2016.
[ 2 ] H.C. Lei, “Some Ideas For Constructing Significant Intersections Of Circular Arcs Of Earthquakes”, 2017 Taiwan-Japan Joint Symposium on the Advancement of Urban Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Technology
[ 3 ] H.C. Lei, “Circles, Circular Arcs and Lines of Earthquakes Around Taiwan
(II): Magnitude and Time”, 2017 the 15th Conference on Land Studies,
Tainan, Taiwan, ROC, May 12, 2017.
[ 4 ] H.C. Lei, W.Y. Tsai, C.P. Yu, Y.C. Shih, P.Y. Sun, Y.Y. Chen, M.H. Chen“An Elementary Evaluation Of Effi ciency Of A Method Of Earthquake Prediction By Intersections Of Circular Arcs Of Earthquakes Around Taiwan”, 2017 Taiwan-Japan Joint Symposium on the Advancement of Urban Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Technology
[ 5 ] 游敬枰，「從2003到2013年台區域地震圓弧交叉與大地震之關聯」，國立中央大學，碩士論文，民國106年6月。
[ 6 ] 中央氣象局，http://www.cwb.gov.tw/
[ 7 ] 李錫堤，台灣區學校校舍耐震性能改善研討會分區講習共同資料 , l999年1月
[ 8 ] Tsai,et al ., 1976