本文利用行政院主計總處的人力資源統計年報、人力運用調查以及人力運用擬追蹤調查資料庫這三項資料來探討景氣循環對個人失業機率和薪資的影響。實證研究顯示不論在族群失業率，或是個人失業機率，以及薪資方面，都顯示男性受到景氣波動的衝擊比女性來得大。在失業機率部分，教育程度較高和年齡越長的人，越能抵抗景氣衰退帶來的衝擊，較不易喪失就業機會。在薪資方面，擁有大學以上教育程度的人，其在面臨當地失業率升高時，薪資受到衝擊而下跌的幅度較大，為景氣衰退下的受害者。在景氣緊縮時，就讀軍警和教育科系的人受到的衝擊較小，在薪資上顯得相對穩定。相反地，職場新人在面對景氣衰退時，所受到的薪資衝擊是較大的，尤其以大學畢業的社會新鮮人最為嚴重。在產業方面，相對於在公務部門工作的員工，投入其他產業的員工在面臨經濟蕭條時，薪資上下跌的影響較大。至於景氣循環對轉換工作者薪資的影響則不顯著。

This study combines unemployment rates at county-level data with the individual-level data from Manpower Utilization Quasi-Longitudinal Survey Database in Taiwan to explore the impacts of business cycle on individual’s unemployment probability and wage. Our empirical results show men suffer more from recession than women. People with higher education and older age are less likely to lose their jobs. In term of wage, people with university education tend to suffer more from recession, the adverse effect is especially stronger for those who are just enter the labor market. In contract, the impact of business cycle on wage is relatively stable for people whose major field are military, police and education. Compare to those in public sector, people who are employed in other industries experience a significant wage reduction during recessions. Finally, we do not find the wage of job mover is significant affected by the business cycle.

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