發生在1906年3月17日芮氏規模7.1的梅山地震，對台灣西南部地區造成了難以數計的災害(鄭世楠和葉永田，1998)，藉由這個地震事件我們認知到，強地動預估在降低地震造成的災害方面是相當重要的一環。
本研究利用隨機式點震源模擬法(Stochastic Point Source Simulation，Boore, 1983; Boore, 2003a)，模擬臺灣地區強地動觀測計畫(TSMIP)自1991~2013年間的淺源事件紀錄，並利用雙站法(Borcheret, 1970)計算觀測與模擬紀錄之間的差值，建立西南部地區強地動測站0.2Hz到10Hz的經驗地層轉換函數(Empirical Transfer Function)。我們利用此轉換函數針對數個目標地震進行場址修正後得到預估PGA值，與Jean et al. (2006)和張毓文等人(2010)使用的強地動預估模式(Ground Motion Prediction Equation, GMPE)計算得到結果並無太大的差異。而針對規模較大且破裂機制較為複雜的目標地震，我們使用隨機式有限斷層模擬法(Stochastic Finite Fault Simulation，Beresnev and Atkinson, 1998; Motezedian and Atkinson, 2005; Boore, 2009)模擬並同樣利用經驗轉換函數進行場址修正。結果顯示針對甲仙地震，本研究方法所得之預估PGA值會優於GMPE的預估結果，而此方法也能提供0.2Hz到10Hz間的可信頻譜。而我們認為未來在建立經驗地層轉換函數時，除了震源深度與規模外，還可以加入方位角與PGA大小作為篩選的依據。
最後本研究參考台灣地震模型(TEM)提供的梅山斷層基本參數，依照日本防災科學技術研究所公布的強地動預估方法”Recipe”(NIED, 2009)計算其餘參數，接著利用隨機式有限斷層法進行模擬，並使用經驗地層轉換函數進行場址修正得到預估PGA值。結果顯示針對梅山斷層進行的特徵地動模擬，利用本研究方法獲得的PGA大小與分布狀況和GMPE預估的結果差異性並不大。藉由本次研究可以得知，使用隨機式模擬方法配合經驗地層轉換函數進行場址修正，在強地動預估上能有不錯的表現，未來在地震紀錄較少的地區可以使用此方法進行強地動預估的工作。

On March 17, 1906, the Meishan earthquake (ML7.1) hit southwestern Taiwan, caused severe damage and lost (鄭世楠和葉永田，1998). This event noticed that the ground motion prediction plays an important role in reducing the earthquake hazard.
In this study, we simulate the shallow earthquake event which record by TSMIP from 1991 to 2013, with the stochastic point source simulation (Boore, 1983; Boore, 2003a). The empirical transfer function from 0.2Hz to 10Hz for each station in southwester area will be calculated by H/H method (Borcheret, 1970). After doing the site correction with these empirical transfer functions for several target event, the prediction of PGA shows no large difference compare to the result calculating by ground motion prediction equation (GMPE, Jean et al., 2006; 張毓文，2010). The stochastic finite fault simulation (Stochastic Finite Fault Simulation，Beresnev and Atkinson, 1998; Motezedian and Atkinson, 2005; Boore, 2009) and empirical site correction also show well performance on March 4, 2010, Jiashiang earthquake. The result not only shows the PGA prediction is better than the result calculate by GMPE but also provides reliable spectrum form 0.2Hz to 10Hz. We think the earthquake azimuth and PGA value are to be concerned in calculating the empirical transfer function except the depth and magnitude in the future.
The last part is the Meishan fault ground motion simulation with the parameters provides by TEM and calculate with strong ground motion prediction method “Recipe” (NIED, 2009). Both the PGA value and PGA distribution are according with the GMPE result and it represent that the empirical site correction of stochastic simulation can provide good result in ground motion prediction.

Aki, K. (1968). Seismic displacement near a fault. J. Geophys. Res., 73, 5359-5376.
Anderson, J. G., and Hough, S. E. (1984). A model for the shape of the Fourier amplitude spectrum of acceleration at high frequencies. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 74(5), 1969-1993.
Anderson, J. G., Bodin, P., Brune, J. N., Prince, J., Singh, S. K., Quaas, R., and Onate, M. (1986). Strong ground motion from the Michoacan, Mexico, earthquake. Science, 233(4768), 1043-1049.
Assatourians, K., and Atkinson, G. M. (2007). Modeling variable-stress distribution with the stochastic finite-fault technique. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 97(6), 1935-1949.
Beresnev, I. A., and Atkinson, G. M. (1997). Modeling finite-fault radiation from the ωn spectrum. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 87(1), 67-84.
Beresnev, I. A., and Atkinson, G. M. (1998). Stochastic finite-fault modeling of ground motions from the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake. I. Validation on rock sites. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 88(6), 1392-1401.
Borcherdt, R. D. (1970). Effects of local geology on ground motion near San Francisco Bay. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 60(1), 29-61.
Boore, D. M. (1983). Stochastic simulation of high-frequency ground motions based on seismological models of the radiated spectra. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 73(6A), 1865-1894.
Boore, D. M. (2003). Simulation of ground motion using the stochastic method. Pure. Appl. Geophys., 160(3-4), 635-676.
Boore, D. M. (2009). Comparing stochastic point-source and finite-source ground-motion simulations: SMSIM and EXSIM. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 99(6), 3202-3216.
Brune, J.N. (1970). Tectonic stress and the spectra of seismic shear waves from earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 75, 4997-5009.
Chen, W. S., Yang, C. C., Shih, R. C., Yang, H. C., Yen, Y. C., Chen, Y. G., and Lu, S. T. (2003). Structural characteristics of the Chiuchiungkeng fault. Sp. Pub. MOEACGS, 14, 123-139.
D’Amico, S., Akinci, A., and Malagnini, L. (2012). Predictions of high‐frequency ground‐motion in Taiwan based on weak motion data. Geophys. J. Int., 189(1), 611-628.
Fujiwara, H., Kawai, S., Aoi, S., Morikawa, N., Senna, S., Kudo, N., and Narita, A. (2009). Technical reports on national seismic hazard maps for Japan. Tech. Note NIED, 336.
Haskell, N.A. (1969). Elastic displacements in the near-field of a propagating fault, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 59, 865-908.
Heaton, T. H. (1990). Evidence for and implications of self-healing pulses of slip in earthquake rupture. Phys. Earth Planet. In., 64(1), 1-20.
Hsu, L. M. (1984). Pleistocene formation with dissolved-in-water type gas in the Chianan plain, Taiwan. Petro. Geo. Taiwan, 20, 199-213.
Irikura, K. (1983). Semi-empirical estimation of strong ground motions during large earthquakes. Bull. Disaster Prevention Res. Inst. (Kyoto Univ.), 33(298), 63-104, 1983.
Jean, W. Y., Chang, Y. W., Wen, K. L., and Loh, C. H. (2006). Early estimation of seismic hazard for strong earthquakes in Taiwan, Nat. Hazards, 37, 39-53,
Kuo, C. H., Wen, K. L., Hsieh, H. H., Lin, C. M., Chang, T. M., and Kuo, K. W. (2012). Site classification and Vs30 estimation of free-field TSMIP stations using the logging data of EGDT. Eng. Geol., 129, 68-75.
Lee, S. J., Mozziconacci, L., Liang, W. T., Hsu, Y. J., Huang, W. G., and Huang, B. S. (2013). Source complexity of the 4 March 2010 Jiashian, Taiwan, Earthquake determined by joint inversion of teleseismic and near field data. J. Asian Earth Sci., 64, 14-26.
Lermo, J., and Chávez-García, F. J. (1993). Site effect evaluation using spectral ratios with only one station. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 83(5), 1574-1594.
Lermo, J., and Chávez-García, F. J. (1994). Are microtremors useful in site response evaluation?. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 84(5), 1350-1364.
Mayeda, K., and Malagnini, L. (2009). Apparent stress and corner frequency variations in the 1999 Taiwan (Chi‐Chi) sequence: Evidence for a step‐ wise increase at Mw∼5.5. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36(10).
Motazedian, D., and Atkinson, G. M. (2005). Stochastic finite-fault modeling based on a dynamic corner frequency. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 95(3), 995-1010.
Nakamura, Y. (1989). A method for dynamic characteristics estimation of subsurface using microtremor on the ground surface. RTRI, Q. Re., 30(1).
Omori, F. (1907a). Earthquake of the Chiayi area. Taiwan, 1906: Introduction of Earthq., 103-147. (in Japanese)
Omori, F. (1907b). Preliminary Note on the Formosa Earthquake of March 17, 1906. Imp. Earthq. Invest. Comm. Bull., 1(2), 53-69.
Rodolfo Saragoni, G., and Hart, G. C. (1973). Simulation of artificial earthquakes. Earthq. Eng. Struct. Dyn., 2(3), 249-267.
Saragoni, G. R. and Hart, G. C. (1974). Simulation of artificial earthquakes. Earthq. Eng. Struct. Dyn., 2(3), 249-267.
Somerville, P., Irikura, K., Graves, R., Sawada, S., Wald, D., Abrahamson, N., Iwasaki, Y., Kagawa, T., Smith, N., and Kowada, A. (1999). Characterizing crustal earthquake slip models for the prediction of strong ground motion. Seismol. Res. Lett., 70(1), 59-80, 1999.
Sokolov, V. (2000). Spectral parameters of ground motion in different regions: comparison of empirical models. Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., 19(3), 173-181.
Sokolov, V. Y., Loh, C. H., and Wen, K. L. (2003). Evaluation of hard rock spectral models for the Taiwan region on the basis of the 1999 Chi–Chi earthquake data. Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng, 23(8), 715-735.
Sokolov, V., Loh, C. H., and Jean, W. Y. (2006). Strong ground motion source scaling and attenuation models for earthquakes located in different source zones in Taiwan. In: Proceedings of the 4th international conference on earthquake engineering, Taipei, Taiwan.
Sokolov, V., Wen, K. L., Miksat, J., Wenzel, F., and Chen, C. T. (2009). Analysis of Taipei Basin. Terr., Atmos. Ocean. Sci., 20(5).
Zaslavsky, Y., Shapira, A., and Arzi, A. A. (2000). Amplification effects from earthquakes and ambient noise in the Dead Sea rift (Israel). Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., 20(1), 187-207.

中國石油公司（1986），比例尺1:100,000地質圖－嘉義幅。中國石油公司台灣油礦探勘總處。
中央地質調查所 (2010)，五十萬分之一臺灣活動斷層分布圖。
吉田要 (1931)，所謂觸口斷層，臺灣地學記事，2(2)，27-29 。(日文)
何春蓀 (1971)，台灣之第三紀盆地，台灣省地質調查所彙刊，23，1-52。
何春蓀 (1986)，台灣地質概論台灣地質圖說明書，增訂第二版，經濟部中央地質調查所，1-164。
吳東錦 (1990)，台南台地台南層之碳十四定年研究及其在新構造運動上之意義，國立台灣大學地質學研究所碩士論文，1-59。
林泓毅 (2005)，以淺層反射震測法探究梅山斷層地下構造。國立中央大學地球物理研究所碩士論文，1-88。
林哲民 (2009)，台灣西部平原之淺部速度構造、場址特性及三維震波模擬， 國立中央大學地球物理研究所博士論文，1-142。
洪李陵、黃偉倫、劉坤松、林昭儀 (1998)，台灣地區建築物高度與基本振動周期之相關性研究，中央氣象局地震測報中心科技報告彙編，19，161-238。
胡植慶，劉啟清，饒瑞鈞，李元希，鄭錦桐，張午龍，陳卉萱，景國恩，唐昭榮 (2002)，嘉南地區變形特性, 斷層活動性觀測研究第二階段-斷層監測與潛勢分析研究(4/4)，經濟部中央地質調查所101年度委託專業服務計畫執行期末報告書，92-95。
陳文山，楊志成，石瑞銓，楊小青，顏一勤，陳于高，張徽正，林啟文，林偉雄，李元希，石同生，盧詩丁 (2003a)，九芎坑斷層的斷層特性與活動性研究。經濟部中央地質調查所特刊，14，113-128。
陳文山，石瑞銓，楊小青，楊志成，葉明官，李龍昇，劉力豪，顏一勤，彭秋雯，張徽正，林啟文，陳于高，李元希，林偉雄，石同生，盧詩丁 (2003b)， 梅山斷層的構造特性與古地震研究。經濟部中央地質調查所特刊，14， 137-146。
張毓文，簡文郁，邱世彬 (2010)，金、馬及澎湖地區之設計地震研擬，國 家地震工程研究中心技術報告，報告編號NCREE-10-016。
張錫齡 (1967)，嘉義凍子腳及中崙構造地下地質之研究，臺灣石油地質，5， 1-21。
彭秋紋，石瑞銓，張徽正，林啟文，陳文山，石同生，盧詩丁 (2004)，梅山斷層與其淺部剪切帶構造特徵，經濟部中央地質調查所特刊，15，85-89。
葉永田，鄭世楠 (1998)，活動斷層地球物理探勘計畫87年度報告-由歷史地震資料探討1906年梅山地震斷層的分布。經濟部中央地質調查所。
楊耿明 (2002)，台灣西部平原區和麓山帶的地質構造，台灣之活動斷層與地震災害研討會論文集，143-153。
鄭世楠，王子賓，林祖慰，江嘉豪 (2010)，台灣地區地震目錄的建置，中央氣象局地震技術報告彙編，54，575-606。
盧建中 (2006)，台灣西南平原末次冰期以來之地層及構造運動. 中央大學應 用地質研究所學位論文，1-143。
詹新甫，耿文甫 (1968)，臺灣西南部新第三紀地層及主要地質構造，中國地質學會彙刊，11，45-59。
謝宏灝 (2001)，利用井下地震儀陣列探討單站頻譜比法之應用，國立中央大學地球物理研究所碩士論文，1-99。