新產品是否能成功推出，是企業競爭優勢的來源。我們應當針對目標顧客的消費習性，價格敏感度，制定適當的定價策略，決定最適的初始上市價格與上市期間長度，以求產品上市有限期間內，能獲取最大利益。
本研究以貝斯擴散模型，運用3+1階段定價方法擬出最佳定價決策。在市場環境的假設條件確定下，先不考慮產品成本，使用Hamilton（計算各時間點價格的波動）及最大利潤目標式，求出最適上市價格。兩者的確定，可以進而求出新產品價格路徑與銷售曲線。再加入產品成本與學習效果於最大利潤目標式，求出更精確的新產品價格路徑與銷售曲線。最後，視產品初始價格與上市期間為決策變數，先找到價格反轉點，設立從短期到長期的上市期間共六個水準，且市場彈性低與高共兩個水準，從兩個相異的市場彈性各六組數據中數值分析，根據總利潤或平均年利潤兩種方式決定具有不同市場彈性時新產品最適的初始上市價格與上市期間長度，企業以此制定新產品的最適定價策略。

The new products can be succeeded in entering the market, is the source of enterprise''s competition advantage. We should produce the innovative products in accordance with our goal customers’ purchasing behaviors and their price sensitivity. We make the proper pricing tactics, in order to obtain the results of the greatest interests in limited duration of products.
This research aims at using the Bass diffusion model, and spends 3+1 stage pricing methods to acquire the optimal pricing decision. Under the assumptions－ the market environment is confirmed, we don’t consider the cost of products first, use Hamilton (calculate the fluctuations of prices of each time) and the maximum profit objective function, to obtain the optimal introductory price for the new product. When the two of above are sure, we could trace the optimal price path and the sales curve. After that, we take the cost of products and the learning curve parameter into the maximum profit objective function in order to offer the optimal price path and the sales curve of the innovative product accurately. Finally, the introductory price and the duration of the product are decision variables. We find the transition point of the pricing pattern to start with, then set up from a short-term to long-term amounted to six levels and the market elasticity from low to high amounts to two levels. We observe the Numerical Results from every six groups of data of two different types of market elasticity. We determine introductory prices and planning horizons of new products according to the gross profit or the annual gross profit when the innovative products have to enter into different types of market elasticity.

英文部分
Ballou, R. H. (2004), “Business Logistics/Supply Chain Management,” Pearson Education LTD, Version 5 Edition, pp. 63-67.
Bass, F. M. (1969), “A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables,” Management Science, Vol. 15, No. 5, pp. 217-227.
Betz, F. (2003), “Managing Technological Innovation – Competitive Advantage from Change,” John Wiley & Sons, Inc, Version 2 Edition.
Chatwin, R. E. (2000), “Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Perishable Products with Stochastic Demand and A Finite Set of Prices,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 125, pp.149-174.
Chintagunta, P. K., and V. R. Rao (1996), “Pricing Strategies in a Dynamic Duopoly: A differential Game Model,” Management Science, Vol. 42, No. 11, pp. 1501-1514.
Congdon, P. (2002), “Bayesian Statistical Modeling”, John Wiley & Sons, LTD.
Couter, K. S. (1999), “The Application of Airline Yield Management Techniques to A Holiday Retail Shopping Setting,” Journal of Product & Brand Management, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 61-72.
Das, S. S., and A. H. Van De Ven (2000), “Competing with New Product Technologies: A Process Model of Strategy,” Management Science, Vol. 46, No. 10, pp. 1300-1316.
Dockner, E. and S. Jorgensen (1988), “Optimal Pricing Strategies for New Products in Dynamic Oligopolies,” Management Science, Vol. 7, No. 4, pp. 315-334.
Dolan, R. J. and A. P. Jeuland (1981), “Experience Curves and Dynamic Demand Models: Implications for Optimal,” Journal of Marketing, Vol. 45, pp. 52-62.
Gatignon, H., J. Eliashberg, and T. S. Robertson (1989), “Modeling Multinational Diffusion Patterns: An Efficient Methodology,” Marketing Science, Vol. 8, No. 3, pp. 231-247.
Ho, T., S. Savin, and C. Terwiesch (2002), “Managing Demand and Sales Dynamics in New Product Diffusion under Supply Constraint,” Marketing Science, Vol. 48, No. 2, pp.187-206.
Jain, D. C., E. Muller, and N. J. Vilcassim (1999), “Pricing Patterns of Cellular Phones and Phone calls: A Segment-Level Analysis,” Management Science, Vol. 45, No. 2, pp. 131-141
Kalish, S. and G. L. Lilien (1986), “A Market Entry Timing Model for New Technologies,” Management Science, Vol. 32, No. 2, pp. 194-205.
Kamien, M. I., and N. L. Schwartz (1991), “Dynamic Optimization: The Calculus of Variations and Optimal Control in Economics and Management,” Version 2 Edition, Elsevier Science Publishing Co., New York.
Krishnan, T. V., F. M. Bass, and D. C. Jain (1999), “Optimal Pricing Strategy for New Products,” Management Science, Vol. 45, No. 12, pp. 1650-1663.
Mahajan, V., E. Muller, and F. M. Bass (1990), “New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing: A Review and Directions for Research,” Journal of Marketing, Vol. 54, pp. 1-26.
Mahajan, V., E. Muller, and F. M. Bass (1995), “Diffusion of New Products: Empirical Generalizations and Managerial Uses,” Marketing Science, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 79-88.
Mann, R. E. (2004), “Priced to Sell - Balancing Supply and Demand Though Pricing,” http://mann.CRMproject.com.
Marn, M. V., E. V. Roegner, and C. C. Zawada (2003), “Pricing New Products,” The McKinsey Quarterly, Vol. 3.
Raman, K., and R. Chatterjee (1995), “Optimal Monopolist Pricing Under Demand Uncertainty in Dynamic Markets,” Management Science, Vol. 41, No. 1, pp. 144-153.
Schmittlein, D. C. and V. Mahajan (1982), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation for an Innovation Diffusion Model of New Product Acceptance,” Marketing Science, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 57-78.
Smith, S. A., and D. D. Achabal (1998), “Clearance Pricing and Inventory Policies for Retail Chains,” Management Science, Vol. 44, No. 3, pp285-300.
Srinivason, V., and C. H. Mason (1986), “Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation of New Product Diffusion Models,” Marketing Science, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp.169-178.
Sultan, F., J. U. Farley, and D. R. Lehmann (1990), “A Meta-Analysis of Applications of Diffusion Models,” Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 27, pp. 70-77.
Sultan, F., J. U. Farley, D. R. Lehmann (1996), “Reflections on A Meta-Analysis of Applications of Diffusion Models,” Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 33, pp. 247-249.
Talukdar, D., K. Sudhir, and A. Ainslie (2002), “Investigating New Product Diffusion across Products and Countries,” Marketing Science, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp.97-114.
Varma, G. D., and N. Vettas (2001), “Optimal dynamic pricing with inventories,” Economics Letters, Vol. 72, pp. 335-340.
中文部分
李宙奇 (2004)，“貝氏統計隨機模式與時間序列模式運用於顧客價值分析之比較 ”，國立中央大學資訊管理研究所，碩士論文。
彼得．杜拉克著，齊若蘭譯 (2004)，“彼得．杜拉克的管理聖經 ”，遠流出版事業股份有限公司出版。
彼得．杜拉克著，上田惇生編，齊思賢譯 (2005)，“杜拉克思想精粹－變革的哲學 ”，商周出版。
張有恆 (1998)，“航空運輸管理 ”，鼎漢國際工程顧問股份有限公司。
張堯庭、陳漢峰 (1994)，“貝葉斯統計推斷 ”，科學出版社，北京。
張殿文著 (2005)，“虎與狐－郭台銘的全球競爭策略 ”，天下遠見出版股份有限公司出版。
張嘉訓 (2002)，“高科技產品多代擴散模型之研究－以DRAM為例 ”，私立真理大學管理科學研究所，碩士論文。
鄭竹君 (2002)，“新產品上市活動對競食效果之影響 ”，國立政治大學國際貿易研究所，碩士論文。